Nuclear war in 2020's

[Confused_Fred]

Moriarty asked:​

If there really is another war involving the West, do you think it will remain none nuclear.

Nuclear war in 2020's won't be what people think, People imagine nuclear weapons hitting cities and decimating the country in 15 minutes or less. This won't be the case. A nuclear exchange of this scale would lead to destruction of any country foolish to use them. Military planners know this.

How do you use nuclear weapons without mutually assured destruction?

The answer is simpler than you think ....you eradiate country without destroying them.

Here is what we know from our history:

The British Army during WW2 released thousands of balloons with wires tied to them from the east coast. These balloons traveled across Europe causing devastation to power lines and other infrastructure.

Castle Bravo test shows what happened when nuclear tests go wrong. This test caused chaos around the world on disrupting satellite communication and electronics.

Chernobyl demonstrated the long-term effects of radiation and decimation of whole areas.

Military planners have been studying these events for years.

By drop a large yield nuclear weapon on an uninhabited island in the Atlantic the effect would be to carry by the wind. Radiation and fall out would contaminated Europe for 100 years. Farm land would be contaminated and seas unfishable.

Famine would cause millions of deaths and our electronic world disappear. Long-term effects of radiation would kill millions more.

Given the distance involved, I doubt any of the radiation or fall out would pose a risk the Russia.

It's hard to see how the West could respond to such an attack. No cities have been destroyed, no countries have been attacked. And much like the Germans in World War Two during the balloon attacks we have no response to it. The winds blow from west to east.

It's the kind of thing that keeps military planners up at night.

But that's not what worries me. We're starting to hear people say nuclear attacks wont be that bad. The effects of a nuclear winter won't be that bad too. I believe anyone who seen am above ground nuclear test be terrified. There are few people alive today who have seen one.

The effect is much like the deskbound mass killers of World War II... those in control are more likely to use them. But the Euro bomb it's an subject for another day.

 

[Septembersun]

I do hope that there will not be any more nuclear contamination from accidents and military tests as there has been enough of this since WW2 and the Cold War era.
The worst affected areas still remain contaminated today to a degree such as:

Christmas Islands in the Indian Ocean (Australian territory)
Maralinga in Australia.
Monte Bello Islands in Australia
Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean.
Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan.
Chernobyl power plant. Ukraine.
Fukushima Daiichi power plant. Japan.
Novaya Zemlya Islands, Russia.

 

[LadyOnArooftop]

You should watch the 80's TV series 'Threads' to see what the aftermath of a nuclear attack would be like for decades. We were shown it in school, I think it comes with a trigger warning these days.

 

[Kev45]

Apparently, nearly four decades (only four decades) after the Chernobyl disaster, local wildlife and the ecosystem are thriving. The exclusion zone is around 3,000 square km and almost by accident has become the 3rd biggest nature reserve in mainland Europe. The forest ecosystem has become far richer in diversity and man made pine plantations are naturally being replaced by primary forests far better suited to the ecosystem and which capture far more carbon.

This planet will do just fine when our primitive species is no longer around wrecking it.

 

[Confused_Fred]

Kev's seems a little out of date

For the past few years Russian troops have occupied the Chernobyl exclusion zone. They've been digging trenches and hunting local deer for food.

In the coming years Russian army will answer the question: What are the effects fighting war in a nuclear battle ground?

They will find out if long term radiation exposer kills more men than bullets.

 

[Kev45]

Yes, the Russians "occupied" Chernobyl for a mighty 5 weeks, which has clearly destroyed all the gains achieved I spoke about over the past 40 years, in all 3,000 square km, simply because they dug a handful of trenches in areas of the heavily irradiated Red Forest, and relatively small areas in context.

DOA with his finger right on the pulse yet again.

 

[Confused_Fred]

The Russians never left the area, they still patrol it. Its on the Belarus border and only a fool would leave it alone.

 

[Kev45]

The Russians never left the area, they still patrol it. Its on the Belarus border and only a fool would leave it alone.

Ukraine controls Chernobyl.

Kev's seems a little out of date

Whereas you are just plain stupid.

 

[Confused_Fred]

Take a look at the map.

 

[Kev45]

What is that RANDOM map telling us, DOA. When was it published during the war and what is it showing us now in context.

We have jumped from "trenches all over the exclusion zone under Russia's control" to patrols on the Belarus border.

Now run along you incessant bore and find someone else to bicker with in 40s.

 

[Confused_Fred]

No wonder you get lost on the way to the park

The map shows the Chernobyl exclusions zone crosses the Belarus border. If you believe that Russian troops aren't patrolling that area....think again.

 

[Kev45]

30 Years After Chernobyl, Nature Is Thriving | National Geographic ​

 

[Moriarty]

Short lived species have indeed thrived within Chernobyl.
The mutations tend to kill of those who stay to long but outside animals have moved back in and bred as the radiation level drops.

The exclusion zone has actually become a haven for species once hunted, hence there is an increase in some species within the exclusion zone.

What we should really be afraid of is an EMP.

Detonate one of those over London and see the whole financial sector wiped out in seconds.
Not only that, water, electricity and gas would be unavailable as all the control systems would be wiped out.
All without causing death or radiation.

The death toll from multiple EMP blasts would be almost zero from the strikes, but near 70 to 80 percent over 5 years.
As people don't know how to survive off the land.

Some rural communities will do ok, mostly in countries which have strict gun laws, as people don't possess firearms where farmers do.

There would be no urban life left, as rioting, looting, rape, murder, theft and barbarism would become the norm as a need to survive.

Only when groups start to form and they will usually be based on strength not ability to flourish will a semblence of order be made.
Using slave labour and basic logistics they will be area limited, which would lead to almost tribal warfare over resources.

Those who are strong enough to dominate will succeed, the weak will be simply used.

Basically EMP lets you destroy a country without actually having to invade it.
Because the population will kill each other to survive.

Leaving most of the manufacturing infrastructure behind.
Which can be transported elsewhere.

 

[Chip_TheViking]

You should watch the 80's TV series 'Threads'

it was an amazing film shot as a documentary style set in England, it was a movie not a series but it's 1 of those films that changed my life & made me think for weeks after watching it.
below is the precursor to the movie 'Threads filmed in 1980, I'm sure I have a link to the full movie (Threads) if anyone's interested it's tough to find online now.
my opinion is Nuclear war will never happen, there's no threat of that, the threats will be biological & things like micro drones.

 

[Confused_Fred]

I think it would be hard but drones to cross the North Sea. It's one of the worst bits of water in the world even for sailing. The channel on the other hand might be a different story.


The effects of an EMP pulse have been known for over 40 years and most of our infant structure in the UK is protected against them. The effects of an EMP pulse on household goods would be a disaster. No phones no, TVs, no laptops, no washing machines. no dishwashers and no heating. For a year or two at most....life in the UK would become simpler but we would survive.

Is Nuclear war coming to the UK? Well the simple answer that is maybe. The UK would not have to receive any hits to be affected by one.

I do remember reading a book called on the beach at school. It was a story about a group of people at in Australia. They were waiting for winds to bring devastating fallout wiping out the last of mankind.

On the Beach (novel) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This book this book affected my entire life and career choices, where I live and how to live. When I left school I could have gone down the academic route and choose not too. After the bomb dropped academics wouldn't be much used to anyone as a result they wouldn't be fed.
You can say the same about all white collar workers now. If computer stopped working we don't need computer programmers. When the phones stopped working we don't need people to answer them.

I was talking to my nephew about this a few years ago. He didn't quite understand that when food got scarce people wouldn't get fed depending on there skills, only the useful members of society would. Those who's reproduction cycle had ended would also go hungry. Resources wouldn't be spent on the long-term sick or the disabled too.

With the UK's population made up of mostly people over the age of 65, fewer that group would be supported or survive. Euthanasia would become commonplace. And it won't be death by bullets or drugs just a violent end.

So to answer the question do I think nuclear war will ever happen...yes.

After 80 years peace few people alive today have experience the effect of war. Those who have see it, have no problem with it. After losing everything they have very little to lose.

For as long as I can remember politicians have been cutting welfare budgets to pay for defense. It's only a matter of time before someone calls their bluff.

 

[Chip_TheViking]

I think it would be hard but drones to cross the North Sea.

they'll simply fly above the atmosphere & recharge from the sun.

It's only a matter of time before someone calls their bluff.

it wont happen, because the second an individual pushes a button they're dead themselves but not just them but everyone they know.
there's failsafe's to prevent it happening, it will never happen.

people wouldn't get fed depending on there skills, only the useful members of society would.

those in control of the supply would get the food & choose who gets it, like the people who are in control of our health care now & we struggle to get it, those people aren't competent or useful to society like the pleb who wants to ban smoking & vaping.

 

[LadyOnArooftop]

it was an amazing film shot as a documentary style set in England, it was a movie not a series but it's 1 of those films that changed my life & made me think for weeks after watching it.
below is the precursor to the movie 'Threads filmed in 1980, I'm sure I have a link to the full movie (Threads) if anyone's interested it's tough to find online now.
my opinion is Nuclear war will never happen, there's no threat of that, the threats will be biological & things like micro drones.

My mistake, forgive me, as the hedgehog said while climbing off the toilet brush. It WAS a TV movie and not a series. The mushroom cloud explosion in Threads is better than the one in Oppenheimer, I had the misfortune to watch last night.

 

[Confused_Fred]

they'll simply fly above the atmosphere & recharge from the sun.

Naaa. Drones need "thick air". The higher you go, the thinner the air.

it wont happen, because the second an individual pushes a button they're dead themselves but not just them but everyone they know.
there's failsafe's to prevent it happening, it will never happen.

I think you need to look at the ages of our leaders. Most of them are over 50. I think the American President right now is in his 70s and their families will be tucked underground well away any bombs with plenty of supplies. Those around him will be in the same position so there's little consequences for them all.

those in control of the supply would get the food & choose who gets it, like the people who are in control of our health care now & we struggle to get it, those people aren't competent or useful to society like the pleb who wants to ban smoking & vaping.

A leaders focus will be on rebuilding. The idea that you could sustain the same level of care for all is nonsense after an attack. Those without the skills to help with rebuilding basically dead wood. You cannot spare people to look after the old only the young.

Imagine your on ship that starting to sink. There's no chance of rescue and no help is coming. Those who stay on the ship will die. You have 2000 souls and only room in the boats for 100 people. Who would you choose to go in those life boats? Would you put the old and the sick in them or would you put the young?

Once you answer this question you can justify just about any action. The truth is the world is in is an incredibly hard place with no mercy or compassion when resources are scant.

 

[Chip_TheViking]

Naaa. Drones need "thick air". The higher you go, the thinner the air.

here is a DJI mini 2 in the solar system, above clouds where the sun hits it, I have 12 years of drone flying experience.

little consequences for them all.

it's easier for them to use bio weapons & the media to manipulate fear.

A leaders focus will be on rebuilding.

no, they will focus on power, just like they do now.
only private corporations that give kickbacks to those in power re-build/build new, like now.

 

[Confused_Fred]

here is a DJI mini 2 in the solar system, above clouds where the sun hits it, I have 12 years of drone flying experience.

I doubt that drone could carry one.

How heavy is a modern nuclear warhead?


Modern warheads are almost all between 50kg and 1000kg, with few being less than 50kg. Modern nuclear warheads can be either single stage or two stage. With some simplification; single stage weapons are your classic WW2 atomic fission bomb

it's easier for them to use bio weapons & the media to manipulate fear.

As we have seen in the recent pandemic, its hard to control an bio out break. If you use a bio weapon the result would be the same.

no, they will focus on power, just like they do now.
only private corporations that give kickbacks to those in power re-build/build new, like now.

You can't control anyone without force. The idea that corporations would survive it's nonsense. No one would take notice of those held up in bunkers. The survivors would fight for any resources and those hidden away in bunkers just become targets.

Think less about the age of the gun, more the age of the sword and bow.