Northern Ireland referendum

[Not_Fred_Honest]

I'm hearing rumors Keir Starmer government are planning for referendum in Northern Ireland. They want to give people the choice on being part of Ireland. Its one of those bleeding sores left over from the 20th century.

Most of us here cant understand the issues in Northern Ireland or why the UK is still there. I'm not sure on how his will play out. It may just come down to the economy and how many people want to re join the EU.

 

[DurhamLad]

I'm hearing rumors Keir Starmer government are planning for referendum in Northern Ireland. They want to give people the choice on being part of Ireland. Its one of those bleeding sores left over from the 20th century.

Most of us here cant understand the issues in Northern Ireland or why the UK is still there. I'm not sure on how his will play out. It may just come down to the economy and how many people want to re join the EU.

Wouldn't the Irish government expect to have a say in this? Presumably, it's not a given that Ireland would welcome NI with open arms given the cultural difference, i.e. sectarianism.

In terms of a referendum, it's not that different to Scotland in the grand scheme of things is it? 'Suppose it could be argued that one was a voluntary act of union while the other was colonising a piece of land. Either way, boils down to the same thing these days: self-determination.

 

[Not_Fred_Honest]

Irish government is already issuing passports to those living in NI. Its part of the Good Friday agreement from what I remember.

I'm sure there meetings going on behind closed doors right now with Fianna Fáil.

I feel the idea is to start treating Ireland the same way as the rest of the EU. Right now people with Irish passports can live and work in the UK without immigration restrictions. Irish government can issue passports to refugees and they're free to move here. Keir Starmer wants to bring immigration down and targeting the 300,000 living in the UK is an easy win. They cant really appeal ageist it.

Right now due to NI, Keir Starmer cant do much to stop it right now, but if NI votes to leave then he can close that loophole.

 

[DurhamLad]

Keir Starmer wants to bring immigration down

I'm not that political and so I'm not sure what the immigration plans are. What I do know is that Britain has become wedded to migrant labour. None of them can turn that tap off because it would lead to a severe dislocation of Britain's economy. When they say they want to significantly reduce immigration, they're lying, Farage, Tories, Starmer, all of them: they know they cannot do that. Not in the short term, anyway. Britain's entire economy would have to be restructured and it's a long term thing. It will take decades to be weaned off migrant labour.

 

[Not_Fred_Honest]

Your right to a point. Immigrant's mostly live in the main cites and south east, that where the work is.
If your plan is to encourage business into areas with hi unemployment like the south west and mid Wales, it makes the job harder. Why set up a low skilled business outside the south east with good road and rail links to a place without them?

And I think that's there aim.

Removing cheap labour would force business into those areas, they'd have little choice.

It would take pressure off the housing market and public services in the south east, increasing home ownership in deprived areas also cutting the welfare bill.

 

[Liamz1888]

A United Ireland won’t happen terrorism would return if it was going to happen. Nothing to do with democracy all about fear

 

[Liamz1888]

The economy has no bearing

 

[Liamz1888]

Unionist will never accept it

 

[Not_Fred_Honest]

If the public support it with a referendum, their little they can do. Its hard to predict the out come of any referendum..... we all saw this in 2016.

 

[Liamz1888]

It goes farther back to 1916 check your history

 

[Not_Fred_Honest]

I don't believe people in NI will be thinking of their past when and if they vote, more of the future.

 

[Liamz1888]

Then you are naive

 

[Not_Fred_Honest]

I think the new generation who didn't grow up in the troubles will vote to join Ireland. The question is what will the rest do?

In 2021, 31.86% of All Usual Residents declared their national identity as British Only; 29.13% selected Irish Only; and 19.78% stated Northern Irish Only.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.nisra.gov.uk/system/files/statistics/MYE23-bulletin_1.pdf

I can see why there looking at this referendum. Its a lot closer than I thought.

 

[Kev45]

A collaboration between the Irish Times and a research body called ARINS has held a representative poll (Ipsos) every year since 2022, in both North and South, to measure support for Irish unity, and the accuracy level is estimated to be plus or minus 3 per cent.

While support has grown for unity with Southern Ireland since 2022, a clear majority still currently support remaining in the UK.

48% of Northern Irish currently say they would vote against unity.

34% said they were in favour.

In Southern Ireland, support for unity is much higher at 66%.

Experts say the growing number of unionists who now support a referendum is because they believe that, based on current polling, Unionists would win a referendum.

Yes, obviously it is more complex taking into account past history.

This up-to-date article (not some dodgy link from 4 years ago that doesn't work) breaks it down in more detail, Protestant versus Catholic, etc.

Support for Irish unification growing in Northern Ireland, poll finds

While unity vote would be soundly defeated in North a growing number of unionists support the holding of a border poll

www.irishtimes.com